INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. and#8212; My second Bonanza article, nearly two years ago, was titled and#8220;Itand#8217;s OK to be optimistic.and#8221; At that time news headlines were gloomy and people were pessimistic about stocks. Sound familiar? Since then, the market is up 17 percent and, while the news headlines are even worse, itand#8217;s still OK to be optimistic.
The financial and even the general media report day after day all the dire consequences from the and#8220;inevitableand#8221; collapse of the European Union. While I agree that there would be serious problems if countries default, and for sure the shock waves would be felt here, the worst case is far from inevitable.
We all well recall the inflation and record high interest rates and gasoline prices in the mid-70s, the even greater inflation and rates in 1981, odd and even days at the pumps, the sentiment after the 1987 crash (here we go again, another depression), subsequent mini-crashes and selling when Iraq invaded Kuwait, the Y2K scare, the sell-off after 9/11. The worst-case scenarios so many thought inevitable had the market, our economy and even in some ways society itself collapsing in a death spiral. Of course, nothing of the sort happened. Why? Worst-case outcomes were not in anyoneand#8217;s interest so appropriate actions were taken.
My point once again is that while itand#8217;s easy to sign on to the worst and usually the most logical case and#8212; often merely a straight-line extension of current trends and#8212; doing so has seldom if ever been profitable. In fact, doing just the opposite has been enormously profitable. Buying stocks in 1974, or in August of 1982, or after the 1987 crash and#8212; despite all the apparent reasons not to and#8212; created fortunes for those with foresight and courage.
So here we go again with worries about defaults in Europe, solvency, recessions, the fiscal cliff, the election and a market collapse. Not so fast. Nothing is inevitable so letand#8217;s not assume the worst case will prevail. Actually the slowing economy, not Europe, is my top concern now.
Being pessimistic is easy. Last Friday, with the Dow leaping up 277 points, the top headlines on CNBC.com read and#8220;Here are Four Reasons Not to Trust Todayand#8217;s Rally,and#8221; and#8220;Why Markets are Going Crazy,and#8221; and#8220;Rogers: Still Expect Financial Armageddon,and#8221; and and#8220;With Crucial Details Missing, Will EU Deal Euphoria Last?and#8221;
Large investors see the positives not shown in headlines (few alternatives to high yielding equities and attractive valuations) and are betting against the naysayers, which is why the market is up this year. d there are even better days ahead. Why? Because economic and profit growth is in everyoneand#8217;sand#8217; interest, rich and poor, here and overseas. Defaults, bank runs and recessions are not. History is on our side.
and#8212; David Vomund is an Incline Village-based fee-only money manager. Information is found at www.ETFportfolios.net or by calling 775-832-8555. Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial adviser before purchasing any security.