INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. - I'm proud to say that Timer Digest, the premier service which tracks market timers, rates my VIS Alert.com letter as the best market timing service over the last year. Having an optimistic view has served me well this year, but my turning bearish on October 6 is what separated me from my competition. Being bullish for most of the year was easy. As I've explained many times in this column there were (and are) a lot of reasons to be bullish. They include:The news from Europe continues to be, if not positive, at least less dire than it had appeared months ago. Investors had priced in the worst-case-scenario, but those outcomes rarely happen. Plus, it never pays off to keep selling for the same reason. This story is priced into the market.Earnings are growing, corporate balance sheets have never been stronger, and valuations are low compared to interest rates and historical levels. That was true when stocks were lower, it's still true because prices and earnings have been growing at the same pace.Alternative investments are unattractive. They have been for a few years, they are now, and they will be for the foreseeable future. People will buy stocks, especially those with good dividends. They'll have little choice. Finally, the Fed's easy monetary policy is putting a floor under stock prices. Let's enjoy it while we can because eventually they will be selling.I continue to believe that this is a bull market, but I make short-term timing calls in my investment newsletter and I switched to bearish because of a deterioration in several of our technical indicators. For instance, the analysis software that I use, AIQ TradingExpert, showed that the market had reached an overbought level and was due for a pullback. Another reason was my Nasdaq timing model was on a sell. The Nasdaq Composite, a market measurement heavily weighted with technology stocks, acts like a mood ring for the market. When big-money players are nervous, investors switch from the Nasdaq to the less volatile S&P 500 index. The most favorable market environments occur when the Nasdaq Composite outperforms the S&P 500. Unfortunately the Nasdaq began to underperform in September.It's hard to time the market well, but I try to follow one simple but highly effective rule when making decisions - you can be wrong, but do not be wrong for long. Bad things happen when you are wrong for a long time. - David Vomund is an Incline Village-based fee-only money manager. Information is found at www.ETFportfolios.net or by calling 775-832-8555. Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor before purchasing any security.
October 30, 2012 | Back to: News