Included in this column is the recent cover of Timer Digest, the leading source to track the market timing of investment newsletters.
That’s because Timer Digest featured me in their most recent issue and they said my timing the past year was the best.
My optimism has served me well, but calling some of the market’s brief sell-offs has helped separate me from the competition.
My market timing has both fundamental and technical components. You’ve read the stock market’s fundamental story in this column many times.
That story boils down to TINA — There Is No Alternative. Alternative investments are unattractive. They have been for a few years, they are now, and they will be for the foreseeable future.
People will buy stocks, especially those with good dividends. They’ll have little choice. Also, the Fed’s easy monetary policy is putting a floor under stock prices.
Let’s enjoy it while we can because eventually they will be tightening.
Technically, I like to follow an Advance-Decline Line computed on the stocks in the S&P 1500 index. This indicator shows whether a lot of stocks are participating in the market’s advance (bullish) or just a few.
It confirmed the S&P 500’s March 14 high. That doesn’t happen at major market tops. That’s why I’m a buyer on market weakness.
The role market timing plays in portfolio decisions should be kept in perspective. It is far easier to pick winning stocks rather than it is to time the market.
Buying good securities will override bad timing — the next bull market will make it right. So emphasis should always be on good stock selection. Market timing is less important when you own good stocks.
David Vomund is an Incline Village-based fee-only money manager. Information is found at www.ETFportfolios.net or by calling 775-832-8555. Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial adviser before purchasing any security.