Tahoe Real-tor Talk: State of South Lake Tahoe and California real estate markets
November 14, 2017
This month I wanted to share some good information both locally and from our real estate market on a statewide level.
Here are the current market stats for the South Lake Tahoe area. This includes all single-family homes and condos in both the city and county.
Currently there are 217 properties on the market (homes and condos). This time last year there was 210, so very similar in inventory to last year. Here is a breakdown by price of the homes that are currently in escrow or pending under contract. The numbers show that the majority of sales are under $600,000.
Less than $200,000 — Three pending
$201,000-$300,000 — Five pending
$301,000-$400,000 — 28 pending
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$401,000-$500,000 — 12 pending
$501,000-$600,000 — 13 pending
$601,000-$700,000 — Four pending
$701,000-$800,000 — Eight pending
$801,000-$900,000 — Seven pending
More than $1 Million — Seven pending
CA home sales and median price to increase at a slower pace in 2018
For the statewide perspective, let's looks at a recent release form the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.):
With the economy expected to continue growing, housing demand should remain strong and incrementally boost California's housing market in 2018, though a shortage of available homes for sale and affordability constraints will be a challenge, according to C.A.R.'s "2018 California Housing Market Forecast."
The forecast sees a modest gain in existing single-family home sales of 1 percent next year to reach 426,200 units, up slightly from the projected 2017 sales figure of 421,900. The 2017 figure is 1.3 percent higher compared with the 416,700 pace of homes sold in 2016.
"Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year," said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. "However, a persistent shortage of homes for sale and increasing home prices will dictate the market as housing affordability diminishes for buyers struggling to get into the market."
C.A.R.'s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.3 percent in 2018, after a projected gain of 2.1 percent in 2017. With California's nonfarm job growth at 1.2 percent, down from a projected 1.6 percent in 2017, the state's unemployment rate will dip to 4.6 percent in 2018 compared with 4.8 percent in 2017 and 5.5 percent in 2016.
The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will increase slightly to 4.3 percent in 2018, up from 4.0 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2016, but will still remain low by historical standards.
The California median home price is forecast to increase 4.2 percent to $561,000 in 2018, following a projected 7.2 percent increase in 2017 to $538,500.
"This year's housing market can be told as a tale of two markets – the inventory constrained lower end and the upper end that's non-inventory constrained," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "This trend is likely to continue into 2018 as active listings have declined across all price ranges for the past two years, but is most obvious at the lower end."
"With tight inventory being the new 'norm' for the past few years and at least the upcoming year, we'll continue to see fierce competition driving up prices, leading to lower affordability and weaker sales growth."
Jennifer Fortune is a Realtor for Chase International South Tahoe Realty. Fellow Realtors, if you have ideas for stories or would like to share a story, please contact Fortune at firstname.lastname@example.org.