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Timing the bottom of Lake Tahoe’s real estate market

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. – There is a myth in real estate where buyers believe they can time the market. This is not true and can be a huge mistake for anyone who is looking to buy a home during this buyer’s market. Warren Buffett, who is considered by many to be the greatest investor of all time, once said “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” What does this mean? In today’s market there is a downward price momentum and it is increasing daily. This is coupled with a lack of consumer confidence from buyers and there is little to no competition for homes. Prices for Lake Tahoe real estate have increased the last three months compared to the same time last year and properties that are priced fairly are being bought now.

The opportunity is now because as prices began to increase then seller confidence will also increase and buyer competition will grow at a rapid pace.

The problem with timing a real estate market is there is no way to know when the bottom or top of a market happened until many months after it occurred. The raw data is just not produced fast enough. The same goes for the economy. This is why you hear experts saying we might be in a recession. They don’t know because there isn’t any hard data as of yet. When the data comes out, they can then look back six to nine months to see what happened.



Not even Warren Buffet has a crystal ball. Asked if he thought stocks were at the bottom, he said that he had no idea, but that he was buying undervalued stocks and that he planned to hold onto them for a long time. If they go down a bit more before they go back up, it’s ok because he knows be bought them at a discounted price.

That philosophy holds true for real estate too, doesn’t it? Buy real estate that meets your objectives and needs for the long term and the exact timing of your purchase really doesn’t matter, does it?



How about looking at purchasing real estate in another way: when you’re ready and motivated, wanting to make your dream a reality, not letting the years pass you by, plus other factors are in your favor such as low interest rates, prices have already adjusted down, motivated sellers willing to negotiate and federal tax credits.

Andrew Carnegie said it best, “People who succeed plan, and then take action.”

If, on the other hand, you’re just not ready, then you should wait and do nothing.

-Wally Johnson is a Realtor with Deb Howard & Co. and can be reached at (530) 277-5687 or wally.johnson@realtordeb.com.


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