Discipline is key to NFL betting survival | TahoeDailyTribune.com

Discipline is key to NFL betting survival

So, which sport do you like best at this time of year?

Baseball, with the playoffs getting started, or football as it gets more interesting by the week? It’s a toss-up for me, but for sports books in Lake Tahoe, football is king.

Having both Bay Area teams involved in the postseason keeps the interest heightened, but when it comes to betting action, nothing comes close to football. At least 70 percent of our sports betting handle is on football, with the largest part of that sum being wagered on the NFL.

Can a person make money betting the point spreads on football?

The answer is yes, with a major provision.

It requires discipline and the desire to stick to a plan.

Discipline applies mainly to money management.

Failure to manage a bankroll effectively is the primary downfall of most bettors who take sports betting seriously.

Getting carried away when a certain game looks too good to be true is the classic offender. Stick to a plan, such as never betting more than 2 percent of your bankroll on any one game, and never risking a total of 10 percent of your bankroll on any given weekend.

At this point, I want to let you know about a reasonably successful method of picking winners in the NFL that I have monitored for some years now.

The name of this system could be “Look Ahead One Week.”

Time and again teams in the hunt for playoff spots get caught napping when they play a supposedly weaker opponent one week prior to playing a divisional contender that stands in the way of that team making the playoffs.

Am I saying that teams take the field for certain games with the attitude that they are not going to try as hard this week because they have a more important game next week? No, it is not quite that simple. What often seems to occur, however, is that maximum effort required to win a football game often gets left in the locker room or at the airport.

Also remember that playoff contending teams are often large point-spread favorites, which makes it even more difficult to cash tickets on them.

Is this a sure-fire way to get rich quick? No way.

But you will cash more tickets than you throw away!

The rule of thumb with this system is to bet against teams which face a key divisional opponent the following week. Teams fitting this scenario

during this past NFL week included the Dolphins, Bears, Packers and Broncos. These were teams to bet against, as they all face key matchups

this week. You will not always win playing this system, but winning 60 percent of your plays will turn a nice profit.

So, what are the chances of a repeat of 1989 with both Bay Area teams going to the World Series? I know everyone in that part of the world would enjoy history repeating itself, as long as the seismic gods cooperate in 2002. Good luck to both the A’s and the Giants!

College football this week has some interesting contests.

The key games that spring to mind are Georgia/Alabama and USC/Washington State. The UNR Wolf Pack travels to UNLV, and the men from Reno look very bettable at -2. These football teams appear headed in different directions, with UNR looking stronger.

In the NFL, I have only one play that I like. The Monday night game between the Bears and Packers should be a shootout. I would bet over 44 points, as the Bear defense is banged up and the Packer defense is not the best, either.

Enjoy all the great sports this weekend. If you wager on any of them, the best of luck to you.

— — Paul Peterson hasn been a race and sports book supervisor at Caesars Tahoe for nine years.

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