Market pulse: Just the facts
We are in an age where many news outlets give its viewers affirmation instead of information. Social media often has misleading or outright false information. As the election nears, Trump voters believe the economy was far better under his term. Harris voters heartily disagree. Who is right?
When evaluating economic statistics one has to remove the crazy numbers that were seen during the pandemic. Record job losses were quickly followed by record job gains. To offset these temporary spikes, I’ve removed the 2020-01 pandemic years from my statistics. We don’t know the final 2024 numbers but the most current data is used in the calculations. Here are the facts comparing the economy under Trump vs. the economy under Biden:
The average unemployment rate:
2017-19 = 4.0%
2022-24 = 4.2%
Average monthly job creation:
2017-19 = 183,000
2022-24 = 276,000
Average inflation rate:
2017-19 = 2.12%
2022-24 = 5.06%
Annual real (after inflation) GDP growth:
2017-19 = 2.2%
2022-24 = 3.0%
Annual U.S. Deficit in trillions:
2017-19 = $0.81
2022-04 = $1.83
Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP:
2017-19 = 103%
2022-24 = 119%
Some thoughts: The economy has been remarkably resilient and stable under both administrations. Thank you corporate America. As for inflation, the Federal Reserve played a role in the 2022-24 spike. They thought inflation was “transitory” and kept rates too low for too long. That was a colossal error. Too much pandemic stimulus was also a factor. The Fed has since reversed course and brought inflation back to respectable levels by raising interest rates. Finally, the little talked about federal debt levels should concern everyone. Go vote!
David Vomund is an Incline Village-based Independent Investment Advisor. Information is found at http://www.VomundInvestments.com or by calling 775-832-8555. Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor before purchasing any security.
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