Winter weather predictions: what to expect for Tahoe in 2024-2025
LAKE TAHOE – As winter approaches, forecasters are weighing in on what Tahoe residents can expect for the upcoming season. Predictions from the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac suggest a milder winter, but Bryan Allegretto from Open Snow offers a more cautious perspective, particularly for the Tahoe region.
Carol Connare, editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, forecasts a “calmer, gentler winter” for 2024-2025. “Temperatures are expected to be higher and snowfall lower throughout much of the United States,” Connare said. “While there will still be winter chill and plenty of powder to enjoy, the overall impact on costs and daily life should be less severe. This winter is anticipated to be relatively uneventful compared to the extremes of recent years.”
Associate editor Tim Goodwin added that the almanac’s predictions are grounded in extensive historical data. “Our forecasts are based on weather patterns observed over the last 30 years,” Goodwin said. “For the Pacific Southwest region, which includes Tahoe, we’re expecting a warmer and wetter winter with above-average precipitation from November to March. While temperatures will be warmer, we anticipate more precipitation, translating to more snow at higher elevations.”
Goodwin grew up with the almanac. His mom and aunt would always have it lying around. “I remember that yellow cover from my childhood,” he said. “What makes the almanac special is that we haven’t missed a year since 1792. People would have the Bible and their almanac.”
Goodwin predicted that the stormiest periods are likely to be mid-December, early January, and mid- to late February. “In the Sierra region, where Tahoe is located, storms that bring rain to coastal areas will likely result in significant snowfall,” he said. “Expect dry conditions at the start of winter, with the most substantial snowfall likely occurring in January and February.”
However, Allegretto from Open Snow expressed skepticism about these predictions. “Seasonal forecasts are wrong more than not,” he said.
Allegretto is concerned that these predictions might not accurately reflect the reality for the Tahoe region. He noted that weather conditions can vary dramatically even within relatively short distances, such as between Northern and Southern California. For instance, Tahoe and the Northern Sierras could experience significantly different conditions compared to areas just south of them.
He highlighted that current indicators, including ocean temperatures and atmospheric patterns, point towards a potentially more active winter season. Specifically, the presence of a weak La Niña, which historically brings colder storms, could lead to increased snowfall in Tahoe. This pattern tends to result in colder storms and potentially above-average snowfall, despite possibly lower overall precipitation.
Allegretto acknowledged that predicting winter weather is inherently challenging. Seasonal forecasts often struggle with accuracy due to the many variables involved. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and other oceanic patterns are key factors influencing winter weather. While these patterns suggest a colder winter, Allegretto noted that the overall outlook remains uncertain and subject to change.
“As far as the oceans and different cycles that we are seeing now, it’s not looking that much different from two years ago. That winter two years ago was so significant that it changed all the historical numbers,” Allegretto said.
Looking ahead, Allegretto anticipates that more predictions will emerge over the next few months as winter approaches. With the season still three months away, the final weather patterns remain to be seen, and ongoing updates will be crucial for accurate forecasting.
In contrast, Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmer’s Almanac, suggests a less dramatic winter. “We’re not expecting the extreme snowfall seen in the past two years,” Duncan said. “Instead, we anticipate average snowfall and temperatures, with a particularly snowy end to January and scattered precipitation in early December.”
While the forecasts from various almanacs might paint a picture of a mild winter, Allegretto’s insights suggest that Tahoe residents should prepare for a potentially colder and snowier season. As with any long-term weather prediction, the final outcome will depend on how current atmospheric and oceanic conditions evolve. For now, Allegretto advised keeping an eye on the latest updates and preparing for a winter that could surprise those expecting a calm and gentle season.
Zoe Meyer is a reporter for the Sierra Sun, a sister publication for Tahoe Daily Tribune. She can be reached at zmeyer@sierrasun.com.

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