LAKE TAHOE, Calif./Nev. – A key measure in tracking El Niño just broke a record. The multi-year climate pattern is based on water temperature and movement in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but to skiers and snowboarders in the Tahoe region, it’s typically synonymous with a great snow year.

The pattern typically brings heavy precipitation to parts of the world, including the Pacific coast of equatorial South America and the southern U.S. As the Tribune previously reported, it could mean above-average snowfall in the Tahoe region this winter.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, the pattern continues to strengthen, and a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through early next year.

“Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the Climate Prediction Center said. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.”

Yet, in a record-breaking event, sea surface temperature in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean that researchers use to monitor El Niño’s progress just surpassed prior temperatures, exceeding 86 degrees Fahrenheit.

Researchers say this is very significant because this region is typically much cooler this time of year. It’s “an exceptionally warm state for this part of the tropical Pacific,” Jin-Yi Yu a professor of Earth system science at the University of California, Irvine, said to Live Science.

Even accounting for the skew from climate-change-induced ocean warming, the measures are still significant.

“On those measures, the current event is already close to being the strongest [El Niño] on record and will likely soon exceed previous records given that the event is forecast to strengthen further,” Timothy Osborn told Live Science. “For some measures, it is already record-breaking for the time of year.”

Yu explained that the ocean region typically warms by 1.8-3.6 degrees F above average, making the current condition exceptionally large at 6 degrees F above average and rising. 

“This indicates that a very strong, or what is sometimes called a ‘super,’ El Niño is developing,” Yu said.