TAHOE BASIN, Nev./ Calif. – Is the recent flurry adorning the Tahoe Basin a good omen for the winter ahead or a fool’s hope? Well, to find a similar year for comparison, we won’t have to look far.

“I feel like in my bones and what I’ve been telling everyone officially,” Tahoe local, OpenSnow founder and forecaster, Bryan Allegretto, says, “is I feel like this could be very similar to what we saw last year for the winter as a whole.”

Early snow in November raised hopes, which were quickly dampened by the demoralizing dry stint that followed. Finally, momentum in the spring made for a winter just short of average (95%) at Donner Summit.

Regions on the north side of the lake did much better, while those in the south had almost 30% less.

Most indicators leading up to this winter are reminiscent of last year, although there is one factor that is different—and it’s not in our favor.

While Allegretto is not expecting a big snow year, he’s not expecting a super dry year either.

The news could be better and it could be worse.

The factors

Similar to last year, a weak La Niña is expected early to mid-winter, although last year’s La Niña fizzled to neutral early on.

El Niño and La Niña, often music to the ears of snow enthusiasts, are associated with wet patterns along the west coast with La Niña favoring the Pacific Northwest and El Niño favoring southern California. Both are patterns influenced by the warm equator air interacting with the colder northern air and the Earth’s rotation.

Tahoe’s location right in the middle of the two can make forecasting challenging. And while a strong El Niño or La Niña can have a bigger and longer influence on winter in the basin, a weak pattern of either often ends up having a minimal and shorter influence.

Other forces can easily counteract any influence a weak La Niña could have. These are forces that also look similar to last year, except for the North Atlantic water temperature.

Last year, the North Atlantic was warmer, which is good news if you’re pulling for snow on the west coast. This year, it’s colder. That, along with warm temperatures off the west coast and a strong easterly QBO (upper atmospheric trade wind patterns in the tropics) all point towards warmer and drier conditions on the west coast.

“All these three things are against us,” Allegretto says, “where last year, only two things were against us.”

Some good news

In September, OpenSnow revealed the emergence of the North Pacific Blob, a large area of well-above-normal ocean temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean. This traditionally spells fewer storms along the west coast, the impacts of which were felt in the poor ski season of 2014-2015. This recent Blob registered sea surface temperatures that were the warmest on record during August.

The good news is, as of early October, the Blob is showing signs of weakening.

Although the snow year is still uncertain, it’s becoming less likely that a strong Blob will negatively influence the pattern for western U.S. skiers this winter.  

Holding out hope

Within uncertainty lies the thread of hope.

“One storm can turn the whole season,” Allegretto says, explaining a one-hundred-inch week isn’t out of the question with a large atmospheric river and cold temperatures. “A hundred-inch week can turn the whole season on its head.”

There’s also the possibility that the waters off the west coast could cool in our favor and tilt us toward a wetter, or at least average, year. That’s something we won’t know until January, though Allegretto says the west coast waters have been cooling a bit recently.

Living in the Tahoe region for almost 20 years, he’s seen some of the worst years on record, like 2014-2015. He’s also been here for some of the best years, 2017, and 2022-2023, for example.

There are always going to be inter-seasonal patterns where even below-average winters will still have thrilling powder days.

“You just have to enjoy what nature throws at you,” Allegretto says.

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